Research · live validation
Fear-Regime Demand Accumulation
Buys fresh weekly-confluent reversal demand zones in falling markets, when weak-hand selling meets institutional accumulation.
Burn-in · Candidate
Candidate research — not production, not validated, not a recommendation. No real orders are placed. Exact entry, stop and target levels are never published.
As of
2026-08-26
test running since 2026-06-16
Instrument
Cash Equity
NSE equities, PIT 20d turnover >= Rs 2cr, RS bottom tercile
Setup filter
DOWNTREND
DOWNTREND (NIFTY below 200SMA, prev close)
Data freshness
FRESH
17 signals · 0 missed · 0 record errors (30d)
Current sample warning
The live paper sample is very small— this strategy only trades in falling markets and can stay dormant for weeks; that patience is part of the design. Ratio metrics are shown as “Too early” rather than pretending tiny samples mean something. It is paper-only and not validated. Separate research modules (IV/OI overlays, options instrument selection) are not applied to this public result yet — they are being validated on their own first.
What is being tested here?
This strategy tests cash-equity / underlying stock movement only — buying the plain stock (delivery-style), long only, on paper, when weak-hand selling in a falling market meets fresh institutional demand. Futures, options, option selling and hedged positions are not part of this public result.
Variant 4R — balanced
4RINSUFFICIENT SAMPLE (n = 9 < 30): metrics are noise
CAGR
Too early
Sharpe Ratio
Too early
Sortino Ratio
Too early
Calmar Ratio
Too early
Max Drawdown
−6.71R
Win Rate
11.1%
Profit Factor
0.43
Expectancy
-0.562R
Risk-Reward Ratio
3.46×
Recovery Factor
Too early
Net Result
-5.06R
Closed Trades
9
Net ₹ (after costs)
₹-5,056
Current Drawdown
−5.06R
Max Losing Streak
4
Best Move (avg MFE)
1.16R
Worst Dip (avg MAE)
-1.86R
Profitable Months
33.3%
Open Positions
4
Variant 5R — aggressive
5RINSUFFICIENT SAMPLE (n = 8 < 30): metrics are noise
CAGR
Too early
Sharpe Ratio
Too early
Sortino Ratio
Too early
Calmar Ratio
Too early
Max Drawdown
−8.90R
Win Rate
0%
Profit Factor
0.00
Expectancy
-1.113R
Risk-Reward Ratio
N/A
Recovery Factor
Too early
Net Result
-8.90R
Closed Trades
8
Net ₹ (after costs)
₹-8,903
Current Drawdown
−8.90R
Max Losing Streak
8
Best Move (avg MFE)
0.78R
Worst Dip (avg MAE)
-2.01R
Profitable Months
0%
Open Positions
5
Graduation gates & kill rules
- Expectancy > 0R after costs
- At least 200 closed trades
- Live max drawdown ≤ 1.5× backtest max drawdown
- Profit factor > 1.3 after full costs
A strategy is promoted, paused, or killed only by these objective gates on live paper data — never by tuning after the fact.
Paper trade book
risk ₹1,000/trade · cash-equity paper · exact price levels stay privateWorking9Awaiting entry0Profit booked1Stopped out16Timed out0Cancelled8net paper P&L · all variants · all-time−₹13,959
The counts and net paper P&L above are all-time across both variants combined (17 closed trades). Date/status filters below slice the visible rows.
| Stock | Instrument | Status | Spotted | Exited | Days | Capital used | Profit / loss | Result | Best / worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BEL | Cash equity · Long (4R) | Working | 2026-07-29 | — | 21 | ₹51,212 | — | — | 3.774R / -0.368R |
| BEL | Cash equity · Long (5R) | Working | 2026-07-29 | — | 21 | ₹51,212 | — | — | 3.774R / -0.368R |
| CAMS | Cash equity · Long (4R) | Working | 2026-07-24 | — | 24 | ₹16,491 | — | — | 0.977R / -0.929R |
| CAMS | Cash equity · Long (5R) | Working | 2026-07-24 | — | 24 | ₹16,491 | — | — | 0.977R / -0.929R |
| UFBL | Cash equity · Long (4R) | Working | 2026-07-24 | — | 9 | ₹10,493 | — | — | 2.203R / -0.357R |
| UFBL | Cash equity · Long (5R) | Working | 2026-07-24 | — | 9 | ₹10,493 | — | — | 2.203R / -0.357R |
| INDRAMEDCO | Cash equity · Long (5R) | Working | 2026-07-23 | — | 25 | ₹37,200 | — | — | 4.242R / -0.665R |
| MAHSEAMLES | Cash equity · Long (4R) | Working | 2026-07-23 | — | 25 | ₹25,156 | — | — | 3.897R / -0.524R |
| MAHSEAMLES | Cash equity · Long (5R) | Working | 2026-07-23 | — | 25 | ₹25,156 | — | — | 3.897R / -0.524R |
| PARAGMILK | Cash equity · Long (4R) | Stopped out | 2026-07-24 | 2026-08-17 | 15 | ₹20,226 | −₹1,059 | -1.06R | 1.841R / -1.169R |
| PARAGMILK | Cash equity · Long (5R) | Stopped out | 2026-07-24 | 2026-08-17 | 15 | ₹20,226 | −₹1,059 | -1.06R | 1.841R / -1.169R |
| NTPC | Cash equity · Long (4R) | Stopped out | 2026-07-29 | 2026-08-10 | 5 | ₹48,629 | −₹1,131 | -1.13R | 0.359R / -1.437R |
| NTPC | Cash equity · Long (5R) | Stopped out | 2026-07-29 | 2026-08-10 | 5 | ₹48,629 | −₹1,131 | -1.13R | 0.359R / -1.437R |
| INDRAMEDCO | Cash equity · Long (4R) | Profit booked | 2026-07-23 | 2026-08-07 | 8 | ₹37,200 | ₹3,847 | +3.85R | 4.242R / -0.665R |
| KRISHNADEF | Cash equity · Long (4R) | Stopped out | 2026-07-29 | 2026-08-05 | 2 | ₹65,937 | −₹1,163 | -1.16R | 2.555R / -3.744R |
| KRISHNADEF | Cash equity · Long (5R) | Stopped out | 2026-07-29 | 2026-08-05 | 2 | ₹65,937 | −₹1,163 | -1.16R | 2.555R / -3.744R |
| CMSINFO | Cash equity · Long (4R) | Stopped out | 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-31 | 4 | ₹33,426 | −₹1,097 | -1.1R | 0.534R / -1.758R |
| CMSINFO | Cash equity · Long (5R) | Stopped out | 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-31 | 4 | ₹33,426 | −₹1,097 | -1.1R | 0.534R / -1.758R |
| SUZLON | Cash equity · Long (4R) | Stopped out | 2026-07-24 | 2026-07-28 | 1 | ₹27,967 | −₹1,087 | -1.09R | 0.016R / -2.805R |
| SUZLON | Cash equity · Long (5R) | Stopped out | 2026-07-24 | 2026-07-28 | 1 | ₹27,967 | −₹1,087 | -1.09R | 0.016R / -2.805R |
| APOLLO | Cash equity · Long (4R) | Stopped out | 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-28 | 2 | ₹29,976 | −₹1,087 | -1.09R | 0.395R / -1.48R |
| APOLLO | Cash equity · Long (5R) | Stopped out | 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-28 | 2 | ₹29,976 | −₹1,087 | -1.09R | 0.395R / -1.48R |
| DRREDDY | Cash equity · Long (4R) | Cancelled (no entry) | 2026-07-24 | 2026-07-27 | 0 | — | — | — | 0R / 0R |
| DRREDDY | Cash equity · Long (5R) | Cancelled (no entry) | 2026-07-24 | 2026-07-27 | 0 | — | — | — | 0R / 0R |
| ZENTEC | Cash equity · Long (4R) | Cancelled (no entry) | 2026-07-24 | 2026-07-27 | 0 | — | — | — | 0R / 0R |
| ZENTEC | Cash equity · Long (5R) | Cancelled (no entry) | 2026-07-24 | 2026-07-27 | 0 | — | — | — | 0R / 0R |
| HCLTECH | Cash equity · Long (4R) | Stopped out | 2026-06-19 | 2026-06-23 | 1 | ₹63,327 | −₹1,173 | -1.17R | 0R / -1.42R |
| HCLTECH | Cash equity · Long (5R) | Stopped out | 2026-06-19 | 2026-06-23 | 1 | ₹63,327 | −₹1,173 | -1.17R | 0R / -1.42R |
| LTM | Cash equity · Long (4R) | Cancelled (no entry) | 2026-06-19 | 2026-06-23 | 0 | — | — | — | 0R / 0R |
| LTM | Cash equity · Long (5R) | Cancelled (no entry) | 2026-06-19 | 2026-06-23 | 0 | — | — | — | 0R / 0R |
| JINDALSTEL | Cash equity · Long (4R) | Stopped out | 2026-06-16 | 2026-06-23 | 4 | ₹42,037 | −₹1,106 | -1.11R | 0.52R / -2.25R |
| JINDALSTEL | Cash equity · Long (5R) | Stopped out | 2026-06-16 | 2026-06-23 | 4 | ₹42,037 | −₹1,106 | -1.11R | 0.52R / -2.25R |
| PERSISTENT | Cash equity · Long (4R) | Cancelled (no entry) | 2026-06-19 | 2026-06-22 | 0 | — | — | — | 0R / 0R |
| PERSISTENT | Cash equity · Long (5R) | Cancelled (no entry) | 2026-06-19 | 2026-06-22 | 0 | — | — | — | 0R / 0R |
Methodology
Signals are computed on each session's close using only data available at that close (no lookahead) and logged before the next open. Paper fills include adverse slippage; results are net of the full Indian delivery cost stack. All metrics come from one shared engine used identically by every strategy. Exact price levels stay in the private research database.
An R means one unit of planned risk — a +4R win made four times what the trade risked; −1R lost the planned risk. Ratio metrics show 'Too early' while the sample is below 30 closed trades, because small-sample ratios are noise, not information.