RSI-2 Mean Reversion (Large Cap)
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Research · live validation

RSI-2 Mean Reversion (Large Cap)

Buys short-term panic dips in strong large-cap uptrends: RSI(2) oversold while price holds above its 200-day average.
Candidate · Negative seed result / Rework required
Candidate research — not production, not validated, not a recommendation. No real orders are placed. Exact entry, stop and target levels are never published.
As of
2026-10-19
test running since 2026-04-22
Instrument
Cash Equity + MTF simulation
Nifty 100, MTF-eligible Group 1
Setup filter
PER-STOCK >200DMA
trades any market; each stock must be above its own 200-day average
Data freshness
FRESH
569 signals · 0 missed · 0 record errors (30d)
Why is this still a candidate?
The seed result is negative after costs: cash profit factor 0.79, simulated MTF 2.5× profit factor 0.72 with the full interest drag charged and shown. The strategy is not validated, not recommended, and nowhere near its graduation gates. It stays published because honest validation means showing failures as loudly as wins. The test window has also been a falling market — a hostile habitat for a dip-buying strategy — so burn-in continues; any rework will be a new, separately tested version.
What is being tested here?
Buys short-term panic dips in strong large-cap uptrends: RSI(2) oversold while price holds above its 200-day average. Both variants take exactly the same trades — the cash variant with no leverage and the MTF variant simulating 2.5× margin funding, where every rupee of interest and pledge cost is charged and shown.
Variant Cash — unlevered
CASH
STATISTICALLY MEANINGFUL (n = 564)
CAGR
-43.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.08
Sortino Ratio
-0.07
Calmar Ratio
-1.29
Max Drawdown
−33.68R
Win Rate
57.1%
Profit Factor
0.79
Expectancy
-0.042R
Risk-Reward Ratio
0.60×
Recovery Factor
-0.70
Net Result
-23.47R
Closed Trades
564
Net ₹ (after costs)
₹-23,466
Current Drawdown
−29.08R
Max Losing Streak
10
Best Move (avg MFE)
0.37R
Worst Dip (avg MAE)
-0.45R
Profitable Months
28.6%
Open Positions
5
Variant MTF 2.5x — simulated leverage
SIMULATED MTF 2.5x LEVERAGE
STATISTICALLY MEANINGFUL (n = 564)
CAGR
-58.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.12
Sortino Ratio
-0.09
Calmar Ratio
-1.38
Max Drawdown
−42.00R
Win Rate
55%
Profit Factor
0.72
Expectancy
-0.060R
Risk-Reward Ratio
0.59×
Recovery Factor
-0.80
Net Result
-33.61R
Closed Trades
564
Net ₹ (after costs)
₹-84,031
Current Drawdown
−38.88R
Max Losing Streak
10
Best Move (avg MFE)
0.37R
Worst Dip (avg MAE)
-0.45R
Profitable Months
14.3%
Open Positions
5
Interest drag (leverage cost): ₹25,687 interest + ₹13,310 pledge charges · 14.1% of gross profit — leverage is never free.
Graduation gates & kill rules
  • Expectancy > 0R after costs
  • At least 200 closed trades
  • Live max drawdown ≤ 1.5× backtest max drawdown
  • Profit factor > 1.3 after full costs
  • MTF variant graduates only after the cash variant passes
  • MTF interest drag < 25% of gross profit
  • Auto-flag to review if drawdown exceeds 1.5× backtest drawdown
A strategy is promoted, paused, or killed only by these objective gates on live paper data — never by tuning after the fact.
Paper trade book
risk ₹1,000/trade · cash-equity paper · exact price levels stay private
Working10Awaiting entry0Profit booked632Stopped out136Timed out36Cancelled0Rule exit (loss)324net paper P&L · all variants · all-time−₹1,07,497
The counts and net paper P&L above are all-time across both variants combined (1,128 closed trades). The table shows the 80 most recent of those trades; date/status filters below slice only these visible rows, not the full history.
StockInstrumentStatusSpottedExitedDaysCapital usedProfit / lossResultBest / worst
LODHACash equity · Long (cash)Working2026-10-19—0₹14,434——0R / 0R
LODHACash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Working2026-10-19—0₹36,086——0R / 0R
TORNTPHARMCash equity · Long (cash)Working2026-10-19—0₹22,816——0R / 0R
TORNTPHARMCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Working2026-10-19—0₹54,759——0R / 0R
TORNTPHARMCash equity · Long (cash)Working2026-10-16—2₹22,817——0.283R / -0.159R
TORNTPHARMCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Working2026-10-16—2₹54,762——0.283R / -0.159R
DIVISLABCash equity · Long (cash)Working2026-10-14—6₹18,064——0.631R / -0.178R
DIVISLABCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Working2026-10-14—6₹45,160——0.631R / -0.178R
MANKINDCash equity · Long (cash)Working2026-10-09—9₹16,596——0.394R / -0.88R
MANKINDCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Working2026-10-09—9₹42,676——0.394R / -0.88R
TORNTPHARMCash equity · Long (cash)Timed out2026-10-082026-10-1610₹18,487−₹326-0.33R0.273R / -0.323R
TORNTPHARMCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Timed out2026-10-082026-10-1610₹46,217−₹891-0.36R0.273R / -0.323R
MANKINDCash equity · Long (cash)Timed out2026-10-082026-10-1610₹14,294−₹702-0.7R0.302R / -0.773R
MANKINDCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Timed out2026-10-082026-10-1610₹35,736−₹1,813-0.73R0.302R / -0.773R
TORNTPHARMCash equity · Long (cash)Timed out2026-10-072026-10-1610₹18,884−₹724-0.72R0.08R / -0.801R
TORNTPHARMCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Timed out2026-10-072026-10-1610₹47,209−₹1,896-0.76R0.08R / -0.801R
ENRINCash equity · Long (cash)Rule exit2026-10-092026-10-143₹12,416₹178+0.18R0.238R / -0.396R
ENRINCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Rule exit2026-10-092026-10-143₹31,041₹414+0.17R0.238R / -0.396R
ADANIPOWERCash equity · Long (cash)Rule exit2026-10-082026-10-146₹13,173₹428+0.43R0.618R / -0.376R
ADANIPOWERCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Rule exit2026-10-082026-10-146₹32,933₹1,029+0.41R0.618R / -0.376R
LODHACash equity · Long (cash)Rule exit2026-10-092026-10-132₹13,856₹272+0.27R0.379R / 0R
LODHACash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Rule exit2026-10-092026-10-132₹34,108₹641+0.26R0.379R / 0R
ADANIENTCash equity · Long (cash)Rule exit2026-10-082026-10-135₹10,394₹335+0.34R0.478R / -0.081R
ADANIENTCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Rule exit2026-10-082026-10-135₹25,986₹812+0.32R0.478R / -0.081R
DLFCash equity · Long (cash)Rule exit2026-10-082026-10-135₹17,853₹687+0.69R0.78R / -0.09R
DLFCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Rule exit2026-10-082026-10-135₹44,631₹1,672+0.67R0.78R / -0.09R
LODHACash equity · Long (cash)Rule exit2026-10-082026-10-135₹13,867₹262+0.26R0.355R / -0.201R
LODHACash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Rule exit2026-10-082026-10-135₹34,133₹608+0.24R0.355R / -0.201R
TITANCash equity · Long (cash)Rule exit2026-10-012026-10-139₹22,601−₹255-0.25R0.468R / -0.963R
TITANCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Rule exit2026-10-012026-10-139₹54,243−₹746-0.3R0.468R / -0.963R
TVSMOTORCash equity · Long (cash)Rule exit2026-10-082026-10-124₹15,373₹322+0.32R0.567R / -0.474R
TVSMOTORCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Rule exit2026-10-082026-10-124₹38,432₹774+0.31R0.567R / -0.474R
TVSMOTORCash equity · Long (cash)Rule exit2026-10-072026-10-125₹15,720−₹25-0.03R0.164R / -0.896R
TVSMOTORCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Rule exit2026-10-072026-10-125₹39,299−₹103-0.04R0.164R / -0.896R
TVSMOTORCash equity · Long (cash)Stopped out2026-10-062026-10-093₹15,940−₹888-0.89R0.049R / -1.182R
TVSMOTORCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Stopped out2026-10-062026-10-093₹39,850−₹2,244-0.9R0.049R / -1.182R
APOLLOHOSPCash equity · Long (cash)Stopped out2026-10-012026-10-084₹16,283−₹910-0.91R0R / -1.266R
APOLLOHOSPCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Stopped out2026-10-012026-10-084₹40,708−₹2,334-0.93R0R / -1.266R
APOLLOHOSPCash equity · Long (cash)Stopped out2026-09-302026-10-086₹16,347−₹891-0.89R0R / -1.375R
APOLLOHOSPCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Stopped out2026-09-302026-10-086₹40,868−₹2,293-0.92R0R / -1.375R
ZYDUSLIFECash equity · Long (cash)Rule exit2026-10-052026-10-072₹17,102₹122+0.12R0.434R / 0R
ZYDUSLIFECash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Rule exit2026-10-052026-10-072₹43,325₹291+0.12R0.434R / 0R
ZYDUSLIFECash equity · Long (cash)Rule exit2026-10-012026-10-073₹17,203₹21+0.02R0.317R / -0.29R
ZYDUSLIFECash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Rule exit2026-10-012026-10-073₹43,580₹0+0R0.317R / -0.29R
TITANCash equity · Long (cash)Stopped out2026-09-302026-10-075₹22,958−₹1,008-1.01R0.164R / -1.391R
TITANCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Stopped out2026-09-302026-10-075₹55,099−₹2,499-1R0.164R / -1.391R
DIVISLABCash equity · Long (cash)Rule exit2026-10-052026-10-061₹18,410₹613+0.61R0.891R / -0.102R
DIVISLABCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Rule exit2026-10-052026-10-061₹46,026₹1,523+0.61R0.891R / -0.102R
ETERNALCash equity · Long (cash)Rule exit2026-10-012026-10-062₹18,224₹781+0.78R0.937R / -0.358R
ETERNALCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Rule exit2026-10-012026-10-062₹45,560₹1,907+0.76R0.937R / -0.358R
DIVISLABCash equity · Long (cash)Rule exit2026-10-012026-10-062₹18,516₹507+0.51R0.746R / -0.361R
DIVISLABCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Rule exit2026-10-012026-10-062₹46,291₹1,220+0.49R0.746R / -0.361R
NAUKRICash equity · Long (cash)Rule exit2026-10-012026-10-062₹14,414₹414+0.41R0.504R / -0.048R
NAUKRICash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Rule exit2026-10-012026-10-062₹36,036₹999+0.4R0.504R / -0.048R
ETERNALCash equity · Long (cash)Rule exit2026-09-302026-10-064₹19,219₹442+0.44R0.595R / -0.736R
ETERNALCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Rule exit2026-09-302026-10-064₹48,048₹1,046+0.42R0.595R / -0.736R
DIVISLABCash equity · Long (cash)Rule exit2026-09-302026-10-064₹18,602₹422+0.42R0.654R / -0.568R
DIVISLABCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Rule exit2026-09-302026-10-064₹46,504₹997+0.4R0.654R / -0.568R
GAILCash equity · Long (cash)Rule exit2026-09-292026-10-065₹28,085₹202+0.2R0.559R / -0.622R
GAILCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Rule exit2026-09-292026-10-065₹70,127₹404+0.16R0.559R / -0.622R
NAUKRICash equity · Long (cash)Rule exit2026-09-242026-10-0610₹13,477₹114+0.11R0.446R / -0.531R
NAUKRICash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Rule exit2026-09-242026-10-0610₹34,306₹206+0.08R0.446R / -0.531R
HALCash equity · Long (cash)Rule exit2026-09-292026-10-054₹18,215₹429+0.43R0.686R / 0R
HALCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Rule exit2026-09-292026-10-054₹45,538₹1,017+0.41R0.686R / 0R
LODHACash equity · Long (cash)Rule exit2026-09-292026-10-054₹13,293₹238+0.24R0.421R / -0.317R
LODHACash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Rule exit2026-09-292026-10-054₹33,231₹555+0.22R0.421R / -0.317R
PIDILITINDCash equity · Long (cash)Rule exit2026-09-282026-10-055₹21,063−₹319-0.32R0R / -0.7R
PIDILITINDCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Rule exit2026-09-282026-10-055₹52,658−₹872-0.35R0R / -0.7R
GRASIMCash equity · Long (cash)Stopped out2026-09-302026-10-011₹24,520−₹1,019-1.02R0R / -1.042R
GRASIMCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Stopped out2026-09-302026-10-011₹61,299−₹2,559-1.02R0R / -1.042R
CGPOWERCash equity · Long (cash)Rule exit2026-09-302026-10-011₹17,956₹428+0.43R0.735R / 0R
CGPOWERCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Rule exit2026-09-302026-10-011₹44,463₹1,051+0.42R0.735R / 0R
TITANCash equity · Long (cash)Stopped out2026-09-292026-10-012₹23,398−₹988-0.99R0.102R / -1.05R
TITANCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Stopped out2026-09-292026-10-012₹56,156−₹2,396-0.96R0.102R / -1.05R
BAJAJ-AUTOCash equity · Long (cash)Stopped out2026-09-292026-10-012₹21,644−₹898-0.9R0.322R / -2.265R
BAJAJ-AUTOCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Stopped out2026-09-292026-10-012₹54,109−₹2,267-0.91R0.322R / -2.265R
ETERNALCash equity · Long (cash)Stopped out2026-09-292026-10-012₹20,675−₹1,076-1.08R0.052R / -1.163R
ETERNALCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Stopped out2026-09-292026-10-012₹51,852−₹2,719-1.09R0.052R / -1.163R
ABBCash equity · Long (cash)Rule exit2026-09-292026-10-012₹13,334₹406+0.41R0.799R / 0R
ABBCash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x)Rule exit2026-09-292026-10-012₹33,336₹1,001+0.4R0.799R / 0R
Methodology
Signals are computed on each session's close using only data available at that close (no lookahead) and logged before the next open. Paper fills include adverse slippage; results are net of the full Indian delivery cost stack, and the MTF variant additionally pays daily funding interest and pledge charges. All metrics come from one shared engine used identically by every strategy. Exact price levels stay in the private research database.
An R means one unit of planned risk — a +4R win made four times what the trade risked; −1R lost the planned risk. Ratio metrics show 'Too early' while the sample is below 30 closed trades, because small-sample ratios are noise, not information.