Research · live validation
RSI-2 Mean Reversion (Large Cap)
Buys short-term panic dips in strong large-cap uptrends: RSI(2) oversold while price holds above its 200-day average.
Candidate · Negative seed result / Rework required
Candidate research — not production, not validated, not a recommendation. No real orders are placed. Exact entry, stop and target levels are never published.
As of
2026-08-26
test running since 2026-04-22
Instrument
Cash Equity + MTF simulation
Nifty 100, MTF-eligible Group 1
Setup filter
PER-STOCK >200DMA
trades any market; each stock must be above its own 200-day average
Data freshness
FRESH
392 signals · 0 missed · 0 record errors (30d)
Why is this still a candidate?
The seed result is negative after costs: cash profit factor 0.76, simulated MTF 2.5× profit factor 0.68 with the full interest drag charged and shown. The strategy is not validated, not recommended, and nowhere near its graduation gates. It stays published because honest validation means showing failures as loudly as wins. The test window has also been a falling market — a hostile habitat for a dip-buying strategy — so burn-in continues; any rework will be a new, separately tested version.
What is being tested here?
Buys short-term panic dips in strong large-cap uptrends: RSI(2) oversold while price holds above its 200-day average. Both variants take exactly the same trades — the cash variant with no leverage and the MTF variant simulating 2.5× margin funding, where every rupee of interest and pledge cost is charged and shown.
Variant Cash — unlevered
CASHSTATISTICALLY MEANINGFUL (n = 384)
CAGR
-45.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.10
Sortino Ratio
-0.07
Calmar Ratio
-1.87
Max Drawdown
−24.24R
Win Rate
57.8%
Profit Factor
0.76
Expectancy
-0.047R
Risk-Reward Ratio
0.55×
Recovery Factor
-0.75
Net Result
-18.19R
Closed Trades
384
Net ₹ (after costs)
₹-18,192
Current Drawdown
−23.34R
Max Losing Streak
9
Best Move (avg MFE)
0.35R
Worst Dip (avg MAE)
-0.44R
Profitable Months
20%
Open Positions
8
Variant MTF 2.5x — simulated leverage
SIMULATED MTF 2.5x LEVERAGESTATISTICALLY MEANINGFUL (n = 384)
CAGR
-57.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.13
Sortino Ratio
-0.10
Calmar Ratio
-1.91
Max Drawdown
−30.24R
Win Rate
55.5%
Profit Factor
0.68
Expectancy
-0.065R
Risk-Reward Ratio
0.55×
Recovery Factor
-0.82
Net Result
-24.83R
Closed Trades
384
Net ₹ (after costs)
₹-62,079
Current Drawdown
−29.35R
Max Losing Streak
9
Best Move (avg MFE)
0.35R
Worst Dip (avg MAE)
-0.44R
Profitable Months
20%
Open Positions
8
Interest drag (leverage cost): ₹17,004 interest + ₹9,062 pledge charges · 14.9% of gross profit — leverage is never free.
Graduation gates & kill rules
- Expectancy > 0R after costs
- At least 200 closed trades
- Live max drawdown ≤ 1.5× backtest max drawdown
- Profit factor > 1.3 after full costs
- MTF variant graduates only after the cash variant passes
- MTF interest drag < 25% of gross profit
- Auto-flag to review if drawdown exceeds 1.5× backtest drawdown
A strategy is promoted, paused, or killed only by these objective gates on live paper data — never by tuning after the fact.
Paper trade book
risk ₹1,000/trade · cash-equity paper · exact price levels stay privateWorking16Awaiting entry0Profit booked435Stopped out86Timed out22Cancelled0Rule exit (loss)225net paper P&L · all variants · all-time−₹80,271
The counts and net paper P&L above are all-time across both variants combined (768 closed trades). The table shows the 80 most recent of those trades; date/status filters below slice only these visible rows, not the full history.
| Stock | Instrument | Status | Spotted | Exited | Days | Capital used | Profit / loss | Result | Best / worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAL | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Working | 2026-08-26 | — | 0 | ₹19,481 | — | — | 0R / 0R |
| HAL | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Working | 2026-08-26 | — | 0 | ₹48,704 | — | — | 0R / 0R |
| CIPLA | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Working | 2026-08-26 | — | 0 | ₹28,082 | — | — | 0R / 0R |
| CIPLA | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Working | 2026-08-26 | — | 0 | ₹70,205 | — | — | 0R / 0R |
| ENRIN | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Working | 2026-08-26 | — | 0 | ₹13,317 | — | — | 0R / 0R |
| ENRIN | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Working | 2026-08-26 | — | 0 | ₹33,292 | — | — | 0R / 0R |
| MOTHERSON | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Working | 2026-08-26 | — | 0 | ₹21,966 | — | — | 0R / 0R |
| MOTHERSON | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Working | 2026-08-26 | — | 0 | ₹54,833 | — | — | 0R / 0R |
| NAUKRI | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Working | 2026-08-26 | — | 0 | ₹18,547 | — | — | 0R / 0R |
| NAUKRI | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Working | 2026-08-26 | — | 0 | ₹46,369 | — | — | 0R / 0R |
| HAL | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Working | 2026-08-25 | — | 1 | ₹19,620 | — | — | 0.145R / -0.174R |
| HAL | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Working | 2026-08-25 | — | 1 | ₹49,049 | — | — | 0.145R / -0.174R |
| MOTHERSON | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Working | 2026-08-25 | — | 1 | ₹21,161 | — | — | 0.048R / -0.218R |
| MOTHERSON | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Working | 2026-08-25 | — | 1 | ₹52,985 | — | — | 0.048R / -0.218R |
| HAL | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Working | 2026-08-24 | — | 2 | ₹19,644 | — | — | 0.117R / -0.463R |
| HAL | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Working | 2026-08-24 | — | 2 | ₹49,109 | — | — | 0.117R / -0.463R |
| MANKIND | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-25 | 2026-08-26 | 1 | ₹23,674 | ₹171 | +0.17R | 0.602R / -0.1R |
| MANKIND | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-25 | 2026-08-26 | 1 | ₹59,184 | ₹415 | +0.17R | 0.602R / -0.1R |
| BAJAJHLDNG | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-24 | 2026-08-26 | 2 | ₹22,262 | ₹728 | +0.73R | 0.968R / -0.758R |
| BAJAJHLDNG | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-24 | 2026-08-26 | 2 | ₹55,656 | ₹1,799 | +0.72R | 0.968R / -0.758R |
| LUPIN | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Timed out | 2026-08-14 | 2026-08-26 | 10 | ₹20,135 | −₹550 | -0.55R | 0.276R / -0.759R |
| LUPIN | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Timed out | 2026-08-14 | 2026-08-26 | 10 | ₹49,219 | −₹1,466 | -0.59R | 0.276R / -0.759R |
| SBIN | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-24 | 2026-08-25 | 1 | ₹28,095 | ₹95 | +0.09R | 0.208R / -0.258R |
| SBIN | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-24 | 2026-08-25 | 1 | ₹70,757 | ₹224 | +0.09R | 0.208R / -0.258R |
| TECHM | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-24 | 2026-08-25 | 1 | ₹23,784 | ₹122 | +0.12R | 0.216R / -0.356R |
| TECHM | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-24 | 2026-08-25 | 1 | ₹60,252 | ₹297 | +0.12R | 0.216R / -0.356R |
| INDIGO | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-21 | 2026-08-25 | 2 | ₹20,460 | ₹329 | +0.33R | 0.517R / -0.159R |
| INDIGO | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-21 | 2026-08-25 | 2 | ₹51,151 | ₹781 | +0.31R | 0.517R / -0.159R |
| TECHM | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-21 | 2026-08-25 | 2 | ₹22,198 | ₹113 | +0.11R | 0.21R / -0.346R |
| TECHM | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-21 | 2026-08-25 | 2 | ₹55,495 | ₹236 | +0.09R | 0.21R / -0.346R |
| SBIN | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-25 | 5 | ₹28,324 | −₹136 | -0.14R | 0.153R / -0.481R |
| SBIN | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-25 | 5 | ₹71,335 | −₹414 | -0.17R | 0.153R / -0.481R |
| INDIGO | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-25 | 5 | ₹20,681 | ₹108 | +0.11R | 0.266R / -0.532R |
| INDIGO | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-25 | 5 | ₹51,702 | ₹218 | +0.09R | 0.266R / -0.532R |
| SBIN | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-19 | 2026-08-25 | 6 | ₹26,241 | −₹142 | -0.14R | 0.128R / -0.465R |
| SBIN | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-19 | 2026-08-25 | 6 | ₹65,078 | −₹431 | -0.17R | 0.128R / -0.465R |
| INDIGO | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-19 | 2026-08-25 | 6 | ₹20,793 | −₹4 | +0R | 0.167R / -0.646R |
| INDIGO | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-19 | 2026-08-25 | 6 | ₹51,982 | −₹73 | -0.03R | 0.167R / -0.646R |
| TECHM | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-19 | 2026-08-25 | 6 | ₹20,688 | ₹28 | +0.03R | 0.255R / -0.402R |
| TECHM | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-19 | 2026-08-25 | 6 | ₹50,924 | ₹6 | +0R | 0.255R / -0.402R |
| SBIN | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-18 | 2026-08-25 | 7 | ₹25,297 | −₹242 | -0.24R | 0.018R / -0.557R |
| SBIN | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-18 | 2026-08-25 | 7 | ₹63,243 | −₹696 | -0.28R | 0.018R / -0.557R |
| INDIGO | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-18 | 2026-08-25 | 7 | ₹20,901 | −₹112 | -0.11R | 0.043R / -0.738R |
| INDIGO | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-18 | 2026-08-25 | 7 | ₹52,252 | −₹355 | -0.14R | 0.043R / -0.738R |
| TECHM | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-18 | 2026-08-25 | 7 | ₹20,717 | −₹1 | +0R | 0.233R / -0.43R |
| TECHM | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-18 | 2026-08-25 | 7 | ₹50,995 | −₹76 | -0.03R | 0.233R / -0.43R |
| BAJAJHLDNG | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Stopped out | 2026-08-18 | 2026-08-25 | 7 | ₹22,530 | −₹988 | -0.99R | 0.35R / -1.008R |
| BAJAJHLDNG | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Stopped out | 2026-08-18 | 2026-08-25 | 7 | ₹56,326 | −₹2,551 | -1.02R | 0.35R / -1.008R |
| ENRIN | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-21 | 2026-08-24 | 1 | ₹13,756 | ₹126 | +0.13R | 0.372R / -0.034R |
| ENRIN | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-21 | 2026-08-24 | 1 | ₹34,390 | ₹294 | +0.12R | 0.372R / -0.034R |
| ASIANPAINT | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-24 | 4 | ₹26,278 | ₹29 | +0.03R | 0.164R / -0.125R |
| ASIANPAINT | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-24 | 4 | ₹65,696 | ₹19 | +0.01R | 0.164R / -0.125R |
| ENRIN | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-24 | 4 | ₹13,755 | ₹127 | +0.13R | 0.352R / -0.112R |
| ENRIN | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-24 | 4 | ₹34,387 | ₹290 | +0.12R | 0.352R / -0.112R |
| ASIANPAINT | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-19 | 2026-08-24 | 5 | ₹23,701 | −₹26 | -0.03R | 0.104R / -0.26R |
| ASIANPAINT | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-19 | 2026-08-24 | 5 | ₹57,935 | −₹124 | -0.05R | 0.104R / -0.26R |
| PIDILITIND | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-19 | 2026-08-24 | 5 | ₹26,426 | ₹32 | +0.03R | 0.248R / -0.222R |
| PIDILITIND | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-19 | 2026-08-24 | 5 | ₹66,066 | ₹13 | +0.01R | 0.248R / -0.222R |
| ABB | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-19 | 2026-08-24 | 5 | ₹14,875 | ₹69 | +0.07R | 0.332R / -0.114R |
| ABB | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-19 | 2026-08-24 | 5 | ₹37,187 | ₹135 | +0.05R | 0.332R / -0.114R |
| CGPOWER | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-19 | 2026-08-24 | 5 | ₹19,870 | ₹232 | +0.23R | 0.399R / -0.029R |
| CGPOWER | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-19 | 2026-08-24 | 5 | ₹50,107 | ₹534 | +0.21R | 0.399R / -0.029R |
| ASIANPAINT | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-18 | 2026-08-24 | 6 | ₹23,679 | −₹4 | +0R | 0.123R / -0.285R |
| ASIANPAINT | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-18 | 2026-08-24 | 6 | ₹57,883 | −₹83 | -0.03R | 0.123R / -0.285R |
| ABB | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-18 | 2026-08-24 | 6 | ₹15,107 | −₹163 | -0.16R | 0.033R / -0.408R |
| ABB | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-18 | 2026-08-24 | 6 | ₹37,768 | −₹455 | -0.18R | 0.033R / -0.408R |
| SIEMENS | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-21 | 1 | ₹19,419 | ₹102 | +0.1R | 0.392R / -0.02R |
| SIEMENS | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-21 | 1 | ₹46,607 | ₹233 | +0.09R | 0.392R / -0.02R |
| ZYDUSLIFE | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-19 | 2026-08-21 | 2 | ₹17,690 | ₹157 | +0.16R | 0.296R / -0.1R |
| ZYDUSLIFE | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-19 | 2026-08-21 | 2 | ₹44,224 | ₹375 | +0.15R | 0.296R / -0.1R |
| NESTLEIND | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-18 | 2026-08-21 | 3 | ₹21,959 | ₹110 | +0.11R | 0.325R / -0.227R |
| NESTLEIND | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-18 | 2026-08-21 | 3 | ₹55,630 | ₹245 | +0.1R | 0.325R / -0.227R |
| ZYDUSLIFE | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-18 | 2026-08-21 | 3 | ₹16,751 | −₹21 | -0.02R | 0.172R / -0.271R |
| ZYDUSLIFE | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-18 | 2026-08-21 | 3 | ₹42,435 | −₹78 | -0.03R | 0.172R / -0.271R |
| NESTLEIND | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Rule exit | 2026-08-17 | 2026-08-21 | 4 | ₹20,601 | −₹4 | +0R | 0.207R / -0.334R |
| NESTLEIND | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Rule exit | 2026-08-17 | 2026-08-21 | 4 | ₹51,501 | −₹51 | -0.02R | 0.207R / -0.334R |
| LUPIN | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Timed out | 2026-08-13 | 2026-08-21 | 10 | ₹20,273 | −₹537 | -0.54R | 0.124R / -0.598R |
| LUPIN | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Timed out | 2026-08-13 | 2026-08-21 | 10 | ₹49,556 | −₹1,395 | -0.56R | 0.124R / -0.598R |
| LUPIN | Cash equity · Long (cash) | Timed out | 2026-08-12 | 2026-08-21 | 10 | ₹18,266 | −₹725 | -0.73R | 0R / -0.84R |
| LUPIN | Cash equity · Long (mtf_2_5x) | Timed out | 2026-08-12 | 2026-08-21 | 10 | ₹45,666 | −₹1,897 | -0.76R | 0R / -0.84R |
Methodology
Signals are computed on each session's close using only data available at that close (no lookahead) and logged before the next open. Paper fills include adverse slippage; results are net of the full Indian delivery cost stack, and the MTF variant additionally pays daily funding interest and pledge charges. All metrics come from one shared engine used identically by every strategy. Exact price levels stay in the private research database.
An R means one unit of planned risk — a +4R win made four times what the trade risked; −1R lost the planned risk. Ratio metrics show 'Too early' while the sample is below 30 closed trades, because small-sample ratios are noise, not information.